This section of our website brings together information, including our series of Economic Updates, produced to bring you a regular commentary and reporting in conjunction with Dr Shona Dobbie, Angus Economics.
Since COVID-19 Lockdown started, we have carried out extensive research, gathering over 3,600 responses from local businesses on the key economic issues impacting their organisations.
Every quarter we will host a live conversation to hear about how business is looking to the future, learn how the Chamber is ensuring that business voice is heard, your concerns are listened to by local and national policymakers, and understand how your business can weather economic storms.
We're delighted to be working in partnership with our Enterprise Partner for the Economy, Condies Accountants and Advisors on the Quarterly Economic Indicator for 2022.
Our first face to face event delivering the results was held on Tuesday 19 April at the Invercarse Hotel when we welcomed Shevaun Haviland, Director General of British Chambers of Commerce and Dale Harris, CEO of ATL Turbine Services to discuss the 'State of the Economy.'
You can download the full report below or view the presentation delivered at the event by Dr Shona Dobbie of Angus Economics.
Download the full report for Q1 of 2022 below
View the presentation slides below
Our key variables show some evidence of deteriorating business conditions during the last 3 months. It is encouraging that both revenue and orders have held up relatively well, but disappointing to see much weaker assessments of both profits and cash flow. One striking feature is the clear intent of many businesses to increase prices in response to rising costs.
Our survey indicates that business revenue has improved for the second successive quarter.
The net balances for total revenue, revenue achieved in Scotland and that raised in the rest of the UK have all increased further, whilst that for export sales has finally turned positive. Sales to the rest of the UK have improved sharply, with 97% of firms participating in this sector now reporting that revenue has increased or remained constant over the last 3 months.
The tourism, trades and transport & storage sectors have all recorded strong gains in revenue, but conditions have been relatively weaker in the hospitality and agricultural sectors
Our high streets, retail spaces and cultural experiences definitely need our support to recover, and governments must adopt a pro-growth agenda, embedding the right levels of business support to encourage swift recovery.
People will need support to reskill as our sectors will be reshaped, and new opportunities arise – this is the time that workforce development becomes critical. Businesses must ensure they are planning for the future, considering the skills that they will need to thrive, and supporting their people to succeed.
The results of the first QEI of 2021 were released at a virtual event hosted by Dundee & Angus Chamber of Commerce (DACC) and Angus Economics on Tuesday 30 March
The survey found that only 52% of local businesses reported that their total revenue had increased or remained constant over the last 3 months. Businesses across the region are now operating at 49% of capacity on average, which compares poorly with the level of 71% recorded in Q4 2020.
The results of the latest QEI for the region were released at a webinar hosted by Dundee & Angus Chamber of Commerce (DACC) and Angus Economics on Tuesday 8 December.
The survey, conducted throughout November 2020, highlighted that:
- Businesses across the Dundee & Angus area are now operating at 71% of capacity on average, which is an improvement from the average of 54% recorded in Q2 and 69% in Q3.
- Businesses across the region are feeling positive about sales, most noticeable when companies are assessing expected export sales, with 47% of companies now expecting an increase during the next 3 months.
- Business optimism is generally higher than 3 months ago but remains significantly lower than it was at this time last year.
- 52% of businesses now expect their business prospects to improve over the next 12 months, but 6% remain concerned that they may not even survive
Our Live event on 29th September 2020 marked the official launch of the Dundee & Angus Economic Indicator.
Produced in conjunction with Angus Economics, leading economist Dr Shona Dobbie said "Being able to create our own business sentiment index is a huge step forward as it provides a wealth of information about the conditions local businesses are actually facing and their expectations for the next few months. The information used in calculating the index lets us see not only what is going well but also where the pinch points are at any point in time, and this gives us the ability to be much more pro-active."
The report contains information on business revenue, orders, operating capacity, optimism and the factors that are increasingly important to businesses.
Business sentiment is turning positive however we must balance that with a continued support environment which protects job losses in the remainder of 2020 and beyond.
This survey covering Dundee and Angus has coincided with the most challenging period for business in many years, if not decades. It was, therefore, ideal to get so many responses which have given us a really valuable insight into how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected businesses in this area, and the particular challenges and opportunities which have appeared.
This is a fast-moving situation and the views, opinions, information and data contained in this newsletter may change as subsequent conditions vary. Although all information used in these publications has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified. These newsletters are for information purposes only.
These documents have been produced for Dundee & Angus Chamber of Commerce by Dr Shona Dobbie, Angus Economics www.anguseconomics.co.uk