The year did not begin well as far as small and medium-sized exporters are concerned with more than half (53%) seeing no change in overseas sales in the first quarter (Q1, 2024), and 23% reporting a decrease.
The figures come from the latest Trade Confidence Outlook published by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), a survey of more than 2000 UK SME exporters.
This shows the percentage of such exporters reporting increased exports has been static since the pandemic, and has weakened slightly since the end of 2023. SMEs are, the BCC points out, less likely to report increased exports compared to before the pandemic and Brexit.
In Q4 2018, for example, 28% of SME exporters reported an increase in overseas sales (4 points higher than Q1 2024). By contrast, domestic demand for SME exporters remains consistently more buoyant, with 35% reporting an increase in domestic sales Q1 2024, against just 24% for overseas sales.
The proportion of businesses reporting decreased overseas sales began to rise in the run up to Brexit and has remained stubbornly higher ever since, the BCC reports.
Its Head of Trade Policy, William Bain, said:
“The outlook remains fragile for 2024, notwithstanding forecasts of stronger global trade growth, due to ongoing geo-political uncertainty and growing concerns about the resilience of supply chains.”
There is also the spectre of further trade barriers with the EU, he went on, as the UK’s regulatory divergence increases.
“We must look again at fixing some of the growing trade barriers with the EU,” Mr Bain concluded.
“It is still our biggest trading partner, but firms continue to express huge frustration with the complexity and costs involved.”
