Two leading global trade bodies, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), have reported that the volume of world merchandise trade turned up in the first quarter of 2024 (Q1) after remaining flat throughout 2023.
According to UNCTAD, the growth was fuelled by positive trade dynamics for the United States and developing countries, and in sectors related to green energy and artificial intelligence.
Its latest Global Trade Update, which can be found HERE, notes that the value of trade in goods increasing by around 1% quarter-over-quarter and services by about 1.5%.
The report shows that the growth was primarily driven by increased exports from China (9%), India (7%) and the US (3%). Conversely, Europe’s exports showed no growth and Africa’s decreased by 5%.
Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2% in both imports and exports during Q1 of 2024. In comparison, developed countries saw flat imports and a modest 1% rise in exports
Available HERE, the WTO report agrees that Europe remains a notable exception as its exports and imports continued to decline.
WTO economists recently predicted that world merchandise trade volume would grow 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. The 1.0% increase in the first quarter is broadly consistent with these projections; if the current pace of expansion continues through the end of this year, trade volume for the whole of 2024 will be 2.7% higher than in 2023.
