The Institute of Directors (IoD) has published a policy paper entitled Annual Policy Outlook: Trends, Risks and Opportunities for Business in 2025, exploring the economic, political, technological and geopolitical risks and opportunities facing UK businesses in the year ahead.
Available HERE, the paper includes an analysis of the international trade policy, looking back at what happened in 2024 and ahead at what is likely to happen in 2025.
It suggests that the Labour Government’s international trade agenda so far has not differed too much from that of its immediate predecessor and looks forward to the publication of the Government’s trade strategy in the Spring.
With President Trump having described “tariffs” as the most beautiful word in the dictionary, the policy paper states: “The biggest disruptor to the global trading environment in 2025 will be the change of political leadership in the United States.”
The possibility of a US–China trade war has prompted more trade and supply chain diversification, it notes, with UK businesses reconsidering their exports to both trade giants.
The paper also sees problems ahead for the UK Government if the EU retaliates against President Trump’s threatened trade tariffs and looks for support from the UK: trying not to get involved could threaten the Government’s proposed reset of relations with Europe.
“It remains unclear as to whether it is realistically possible for the UK to avoid tough geopolitical choices in a world of increasing polarisation,” the policy paper concludes.
