The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Quarterly Economic Forecast (QEF) Q1 2025 has revised its UK economy growth expectations. The UK GDP growth is now expected to be 0.9% in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 1.3%.
The BCC cites the impact of the National Insurance rise and global uncertainties, and notes that inflation and interest rates are also expected to stay higher for longer. Inflation is now expected to remain above the Bank of England’s target until the last quarter (Q4) of 2027.
The latest QEF highlights continuing difficulties in trading with the EU as it forecasts that the overall exports are likely to contract by 0.5% in 2025 (compared with a rise of 0.2% in the previous edition). Exports are predicted to recover slightly in 2026, growing by 1%, before rising by 2.1% in 2027.
The BCC points out that imports are expected to be flat (0.0%) this year before reaching 0.8% in 2026. Net trade continues to contract, with figures of -1.2% in 2025 and 2026, falling to -1.4% in 2027.
Head of Research, David Bharier, said: “UK firms are facing a double whammy of rising domestic taxation and a potential global trade war. Businesses are telling us that the rise in National Insurance and the minimum wage will increase costs, stall investment, and cause them to rethink their workforce plans.”
While the specific impacts are yet to be fully seen, he went on, in this environment it is difficult to see where high levels of economic growth will come from.
More details of the QEF can be found HERE:
