First quarter global goods trade held strong despite war in Middle East

Surging trade in electronic components related to artificial intelligence (AI) offset the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East, as world merchandise trade growth exceeded expectations in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026.

This is according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which went on to warn that the conflict did not begin until the final month of the quarter and that trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be more fully captured in trade data for Q2.

The latest WTO data, available here, shows that the seasonally adjusted volume of world merchandise trade grew 1.9% in Q1 compared to the previous quarter and 3.2% compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

The next Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (GTOS) report will be issued by the WTO in October 2026 and it has concluded that the global impact will depend on whether it will be the AI boom or the Middle East conflict that predominates.

While figures on world trade in AI-enabling goods are not available in quantity terms, the WTO has highlighted that the US dollar value of this trade was up more than 40% year-on-year in the first quarter.

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