Weak export growth could show some improvement in 2027

UK exports are expected to grow by just 0.4% this year according to the latest British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Economic Forecast which suggests that the overall outlook for the UK will remain uncertain.

The Forecast blames Middle East conflict and United States’ tariffs for the poor performance of exports in 2026 but, on a more positive note, predicts an improvement to 1.3% next year.

Available here, the third quarter (Q3) Forecast warns that the absence of a lasting peace deal between the US and Iran means trade will remain challenging.

However, it does see improvements ahead with a predicted 2.4% growth in exports in 2028.

BCC Deputy Director Economics and Insights, David Bharier, said: “Just 17% of firms now say they are increasing investment, the lowest since the pandemic, citing labour costs and taxation as the main factors. A declining proportion of SME exporters are seeing increased overseas sales.”

BCC modelling shows domestic, policy-driven business cost base has risen by more than 70% since 2016 for a typical SME, he went on, even before Brexit trade friction and global shocks are factored in to the calculations.

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